|
What
do you worry about?
What
is the main thing that worries you in
stock or option trading? A simple answer
would be: risk. However, this answer
is incomplete. Only investments in government
securities are risk free. You enter
the stock market ready to take risks
and expecting to be fairly compensated
– that’s how it works. Therefore,
to define it more precisely, your worries
are concentrated around the key question:
“Are the risks you take worth
the rewards?”
What
kind of market play would fit your requirements
and keep you worry-free? Let us consider
a hypothetical situation: you toss a
coin and see what you get. If heads,
you lose $1. If tails, you get $1,000.
Would you agree to play this game? Of
course, you would - the solution is
obvious. Unfortunately, situations of
that simple kind do not exist in reality.
Real
market situations are much more complicated.
Non-professionals usually don’t
feel 100% comfortable about the decisions
they take. Solutions to complicated
problems are rarely obvious and often
lead to stress.
When
you don’t have the fundamental
knowledge about something and can’t
estimate risks and rewards, you turn
to your intuition and emotions. Hope,
fear and greed are popular emotions
but by no means can they be strategies.
Decisions should never be based on emotions:
positive emotions can strip you off
the risk precautions, while negative
emotions can trigger hesitation. The
‘big boys’ of the stock
market can easily leverage your decision-making
by spreading rumors and, for example,
‘shaking stocks off weak hands’:
you get emotional and do exactly what
they need you to do. How do you like
being manipulated? Isn’t it better
to have your own trading system based
on facts, not on emotions?
Trading
is a psychological game. Most people
think they're playing against the market,
but the market doesn't care. You're
really playing against yourself, against
your emotions that paint a simplified
picture of the actual market. But the
reality is that complicated situations
cannot be resolved with simple intuitive
decisions.
Another
popular mistake is to underestimate
the fact that losses are merely the
cost of doing business. Each decision
can have a different outcome, but the
only right way to assess the quality
of your decisions or your trading technique
is to consider a flow of decisions.
Statistical regularities can only be
revealed through a series of observations.
For example, a tossed coin can land
on either of its two sides. The frequencies
of getting heads or tails will be approximately
equal if a series of trials is made.
Such experiment tells us the following:
if you want to place a one-time bet,
then stock trading is not for you. You
can be a successful trader only if you
follow a certain methodology in a rather
long sequence of trades.
The
stock market is an ocean, where one
wave comes after another. Take the losses
easy. Don't try to convince yourself
that a bad trade will turn soon into
a good trade. The stock market offers
endless and overflowing possibilities.
Prices keep changing and create other
opportunities - missed opportunities
exist only in your mind. Winning traders
are able to ride through the downturn
periods. The purpose of trading is to
make a net profit in a sequence of trades.
Perhaps,
the only way to keep the worries away
is to learn to think in terms of probabilities
and perform upon them. There is a lot
of uncertainty in trading. That is why
you should learn to operate with approximate
predictions and interpretations.
Stock
options are a unique tool: first, they
reflect the collective opinion of the
market players, and second, they estimate
the probability of stock price going
up or down
We
should all be thankful to the technical
progress, which provides us with online
access to the amazing world of modern
financial instruments. Such privilege
has become available not only to the
small professional community, but also
to individual investors. It opens the
door to the precise assessment of the
risk you are willing to take for the
return you WILL get.
This
site publishes hundreds of Daily
Notes as well as other research and
education materials related to stock/index
option trading, technical and fundamental
analysis, etc. Unlike many other stock
sites, it combines in one the complicated
technical analysis and option math.
Therefore, published picks are related
to most predictable technical situations
and based on the most suitable option
strategies in risk-return terms.
Learn more about
our approach and models here.
Our
daily picks (Daily Notes) contain:
- daily
and weekly technicals (outlook and
relative strength) for a featured
stock and the related industry,
- featured
bullish or bearish option strategies
that better fit to these technical
signals combinations, i.e. major
option parameters: expected profit,
break-even, potential loss, probability
estimates, etc.
You
can find our picks for the numerous
stock market dimensions :
- Short-term Option Picks (Buy Call, Buy Put, etc.)
- Intermediate-Term
Option Picks (Buy Call, Buy Put,
etc.)
- Ratings
of S&P500 Sectors
- Strengthening
Stocks within S&P500 Sectors
- Weakening
Stocks within S&P500 Sectors
- Most
Active within S&P500 Sectors
- Index
Ratings
- Top
10 Momentum Stocks
- "Earnings
Play" (The earnings reports for
these stocks will be released
soon!)
- "Falling
Knives" (These stocks have been
falling 5 days in a row!)
- "Surfing
Buying Wave" (These stocks have
been rising 5 days in a row!)
- Estimates
for recently upgraded stocks
- Estimates
for recently downgraded stocks
- Overvalued
Stocks & Sectors (Stocks,
Sectors, Indices)
- Oversold
(Stocks, Sectors, Indices)
- Overbought
(Stocks, Sectors, Indices)
- Short-Term
Buys (Stocks, Sectors, Indices)
- Short-Term
Sells (Stocks, Sectors, Indices)
- "Beaten
Favorites"
- "Bargain
Basement" (Stocks, Sectors,
Indices), etc.
Our
Basic Service
includes password-protected access to
all Daily Notes, Reports, downloadable
software programs and other contents
that are published on the site. Find
more about our Basic and Premium
Services!
Find more about
our site on our Q&A page!
You
can learn more about option
trading right or find selections
of books and the lead what and where
to read. Open our comparison chart
of option strategies. Visit
also the CBOE education
area for a complete overview of
options trading.
Reminder
Please
keep in mind the following three points:
1. Past performance does not
guarantee future results
2. Our range of picks is broad
enough for you to select the best ones
– those that fit your portfolio,
option strategy, risk averseness, industry
focus, etc. Our track record shows that
we make rational decisions based on
rational models. If you stay
with us and make frequent trades, the
average trade will be a success. However,
according to the rules of statistics,
there is always room for risk and each
individual trade can be either a success
or a failure.
3. Options involve risk, and
are not suitable for all investors.
Every investor who uses options should
read and understand the publication
"Characteristics and
Risks of Standardized Options" published
by CBOE.
Disclaimer
vbvcb OptionSmart.com
(a division of Stock Markets Institute)
obtains information from sources deemed
to be reliable. However,OptionSmart.com
(Stock Markets Institute) does
not guarantee the accuracy of any of
the information or commentary provided.
OptionSmart.com makes no warranties,
expressed or implied, as to the fitness
of the information for any purpose,
or to results obtained by individuals
using the information. In no event shall
OptionSmart.com (Stock Markets Institute)
be liable for direct, indirect, or incidental
damages resulting from the use of the
information. OptionSmart.com (Stock
Markets Institute) shall be indemnified
and held harmless from any actions,
claims, proceedings, or liabilities
with respect to the information and
its use.
OptionSmart.com (Stock Markets Institute)
does not make specific trading recommendations
or provide individualized market advice.
The information contained in its products
is provided as an information service
only. |